We’ve been at this stage before, in Nigeria, a couple of times in fact: a government welcomed with wary but open arms gradually wastes all the goodwill it has once enjoyed on one distraction or the other until it eventually runs out of favour with the electorate. Then it begins to panic and seeks means to prevent itself from being thrown out. First the strategy looks benign, then gets desperate, and eventually destructive in a way that almost takes down the whole country with it.
Looking back to much of the crises of administration in Nigeria’s history, this has been the pattern: Akintola in the defunct Western Region, Yakubu Gowon in the seventies, Ibrahim Babangida during the June 12 crises, Sani Abacha afterwards, and Olusegun Obasanjo with the Third Term Agenda. In all these instances, the common denominator is an eventual disgracing of the principal, and the ushering in of a new administration. In a few cases, it comes with loss of lives, properties, and the well-being of the country. Babangida’s hubris ended with a transitional government and a coup d’etat. Sani Abacha’s, with the bite of an apple.
Yesterday, the administration of Mr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan joined the infamous list of Nigerian rulers incapable of looking away from the lure of interminable power. A man ushered into office on the huge enthusiasm and hope of all Nigerians in 2011, after two years as a substitute for a dead principal, has now finally come full circle as nothing but the same old power-hungry model we’ve known too well. Yesterday, 11 hours after major news outlets broke the news, the chairman of the electoral body INEC announced that he has been arm-twisted into postponing elections previously slated to hold on February 14 to a later date six weeks away. The excuse made no sense, and people saw through it immediately. But that didn’t stop the emperor with no clothes.
Yesterday, before the announcement was made, military men were seen patrolling Lagos and other major states around the country, ostensibly to keep the peace (that wasn’t threatened), but in reality to put the nation under an atmosphere of intimidation which usually helps to allow rigging when called for. A leaked audio tape from a previous state election in Ekiti state shows how the administration had used the Minister for State for Defense and other government officials to bully security operatives into allowing them a free hand to manipulate the outcome of the election. By pretending that a state of unease exists in ALL the parts of the country (and not just the NorthEast where Boko Haram has finally taken root after six years of half-hearted security response by the government), Mr. Goodluck gets a chance to again use the agencies of state for ends not beneficial to anyone but himself and his merry band of political opportunists.
We have been here before, and the situation always ends the same way: disgrace and dishonour. It is true that the coming election will be between a civilian and a dictator. More than ever before, Nigerians are committed to voting out the dictator as soon as possible. Six years is long enough.